reject the false threats of the government

The main argument from the Yes side has been the threat that if we don’t vote Yes, the government will not be able to get a so-called ‘second bailout’ due to the ‘blackmail’ clause in the European Stability Mechanism Treaty (ESM).

The government present this clause as simply an unfortunate reality. However, the new ESM Treaty was agreed unanimously at the European Council – that means the government agreed to insert this provision, in order to blackmail us with now.

However, the votes in the Dáil establishing the ESM will not take place until after the 31 May vote on the Austerity Treaty. The government therefore have the power block the ESM Treaty and demand the withdrawal of the blackmail clause. ESM loans are not guaranteed even if the Austerity Treaty is passed. It will only be given if it is in the interests of the bankers and bondholders in the core euro countries, and at the cost of yet more austerity.

Government policies are pushing Ireland into a ‘second bailout’. We need to change course, burn the bondholders and launch a massive public investment programme to create jobs, wealth & growth and avoid the bankruptcy austerity inevitably will bring.

this treaty means 5.7bn to 8bn euro more cuts

Article 3 of the Treaty imposes a new target, known as a structural deficit target, for Ireland will be 0.5%. This will apply in 2015 for Ireland and 2013 in other EU countries. Using the Department of Finance estimates Ireland’s structural deficit will be 3.7% in 2015. Bringing that down to 0.5% would require at least an extra €5.7 billion of cuts and taxes. However, many economists estimate that this figure is an underestimate as the implementation of austerity in the meantime will shrink the size of the economy further, bringing the total amount of extra austerity required to over €8 billion.

The government say this treaty is not about household and water taxes. But how else will this deficit be plugged other than by the imposition of extra taxes and cuts in public services?

The European Commission estimates in 2013 that 18 countries will have a structural deficit greater than what is permitted under Article 3. To bring deficits back within the rules it would mean at least €166 billion worth of austerity measures being imposed almost simultaneously across the continent. This will destroy Irish export markets and only serve to create more instability.

this treaty hands 5.5bn euro a year to bondholders

Article 4 of the Austerity Treaty clearly puts the interests of bondholders before public services and the economy as a whole. The bondholders want to get the maximum return from the bonds they own of the peripheral countries and are willing to see the long-term prospects for the economy destroyed in order to get it.

The treaty demands a quick reduction in the debt to GDP ratio. There are two ways this could be achieved. It could be achieved with economic growth. However, that option is ruled out because of the devastating austerity already being applied and copper-fastened with this treaty.

Therefore the only way to meet the Article 4 target will be to literally pay back the bondholders. In Ireland this will mean paying back around €5.5 billion a year in principal repayments on top of the €9 billion in interest a year. That’s €14 billion a year being taken out of the economy in order to allow these bondholders to get their money back.

The interests of working people should come before the returns of the bondholders. This debt should not be repaid. Compensation to these bondholders should only be paid to those who prove genuine need.

this treaty removes your right to vote for a real economic alternative

There is a huge lack of democracy in the society we live in. This is no more evident than in the EU institutions where big business lobbyists and the unelected Commission play dominate decision making. This treaty undermines further the limited democracy that does exist.

The balanced budget rule in Article 3 effectively ties future governments to the policies of neo-liberalism and austerity. It rules out governments having policies that would run deficits to invest in vital public works to seriously tackle unemployment and redevelop the economy.

Under the terms of Article 5 of the Treaty countries that do not implement austerity with the vigour deemed necessary are placed in an “Excessive Deficits Procedure” which effectively places them in administration with budgets being written by bureaucrats in the Commission and Council rather than elected governments.

Overturning these sanctions is made nearly impossible with a ‘Qualified majority’ needed at Council to reverse sanctions. This treaty therefore gives more power to unelected bureaucrats, away from governments, that must face election and are more likely to feel the pressure from mass movements.